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AFGHANISTAN

Highest ever civilian casualties reflect evolution of conflict

In Afghanistan, civilian casualties reached a record high in the first half of this year, according to United Nations figures released Monday. The UN finds children paid an especially high toll and that a growing number of casualties are attributable to pro-government forces.

Afghan security forces inspect the damage of a minibus that was hit by a suicide attacker in Kabul, 20 June 2016.
Afghan security forces inspect the damage of a minibus that was hit by a suicide attacker in Kabul, 20 June 2016. Reuters
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The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 5,166 civilian casualties between January and June 2016, which breaks down as 1,601 deaths and 3,565 injuries.

These figures represent a four-percent increase over the same period in 2015 and the highest since the UNAMA began recording civilian casualties in 2009.

They also include 1,509 casualties among children (388 deaths and 1,121 injuries) – an increase of eighteen percent over the previous year.

“Children are almost one third of total civilian casualties,” emphasises Danielle Bell, human rights director of the mission, who links the increase with “the increase in ground engagements taking place in civilian populated areas. An unfortunate consequence of that is that children increasingly became the victims.”

Although forces fighting the government, namely the Taliban, are responsible for the largest share of the casualties, the UNAMA report also found 1,180 were attributable to pro-government forces, meaning 23 percent of the total but also a 47-percent increase over the same period in 2015.

“After the breakdown of attempts to get peace talks with the Taliban going, the Afghan government has said we will switch to a military solution for the time being, and that has led to an intensification of fighting on the ground, and of course the Taliban were also hitting back,” explains Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghan Analysts Network.

“We had seen this increase less strongly percentage-wise already after the last reporting period, and the UN had warned the government that, although they were leading a legitimate fight, they had to take the protection of civilians into consideration,” Ruttig says. “That has apparently not had the necessary effect.”

Afghan forces blamed for casualties

His words echo those of UNAMA chief Tadamichi Yamamoto, who said the casualties reflected a “failure of commitment” of the warring parties to reduce civilian suffering, although members of his office also stress the government is looking to adopt a more proactive policy in minimising these casualties.

“They have been quite committed to ensuring this policy gets passed as quickly as possible,” says Bell, adding that “the casualties attributed to pro-government forces are while they’re engaging in operations where they’re coming under attack. It’s much different than civilian casualties that we see attributed to anti-government elements, which for the most part, involve the use of indiscriminate tactics, such as IEDs or suicide in complex attacks.”

Some observers also note the military actions are pushing back the Taliban, which has adapted its tactics.

“We’re seeing more suicide attacks and less direct attacks, and we’re also seeing the Taliban trying to attack districts or villages but then disappear back into the mountains, so they’re not holding on long enough,” says Timor Sharan, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in Kabul.

“Also, more importantly, with the reestablishment of Afghanistan’s national air force, we’re seeing the Taliban being driven into the mountains more than previously.”

Various players on the Afghan battlefied

Observers of the conflict in Afghanistan also note the presence of other players contributing to violence.

Sharan believes a considerable amount of fighting…is due to regional governors, commanders and other power brokers…looking to exert influence.

“There is a general feeling in Afghanistan that violence has now become a tool for key individuals to exert their influence and expand their economic resources,” Sharan says in reference to regional governors, commanders and other power brokers.

“For instance, there are 300 mining contracts that have been given to mainly former jihadi commanders, mainly parliamentarians. These parties are using violence to exert influence in the regions they are trying to control, and more importantly to access resources.”

The report covers the period ending on 30 June, so does not include a bomb attack that killed 80 people in Kabul on Saturday, the deadliest in the capital has seen in fifteen years and also the deadliest attack claimed in Afghanistan by the Islamic State (IS) armed group.

“It’s not the first attack they were responsible for in Afghanistan, but it’s by far the biggest one, so that also needs to be part of the picture, but it will be much more difficult even than with the Taliban to convince the IS not to attack civilian targets,” says Thomas Ruttig.

“That’s a new factor, but on the other hand, as terrible as that attack is, the IS is by far a much smaller actor on the Afghan battlefield than the Taliban.”
 

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