Plans to scale up fossil fuels threaten 1.5C climate target, UN warns

Governments around the world are planning to expand the fossil fuel industry to about twice what would be consistent with their pledge to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a United Nations report on Wednesday found.

The Garzweiler II brown coal mine in in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. AFP

Global oil and gas production would increase until at least 2050, the annual United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Production Gap report warned. 

The plans by the top 20 fossil fuel-producing countries – including the United States, China, Russia, Australia and Cop28 host United Arab Emirates – come despite frequent and devastating heatwaves, droughts, floods and wildfires in recent months.

Big emitters have pledged to achieve “net-zero” emissions by the middle of the century and limit global warming to 1.5C.

But Wednesday's report found that governments' plans would produce 110 per cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the 1.5C target.

Uncertain future

"Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity's future into question," said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen.

The UN has already estimated that existing pledges have the world on a trajectory of 2.5C of warming this century despite a huge increase in the number of countries setting individual climate targets in recent years.

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The future of fossil fuels will be a flashpoint subject at the Cop28 climate summit in Dubai later this month.

A separate UN report last week intended to function as a blueprint for Cop28 said the 1.5C target would only be achievable if the world increased its emissions-cutting pledges by a further 20.3-23.9 billion tonnes by 2030.

"Starting at Cop28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet," Andersen said.