Climate change in France 'worse than expected' say researchers

According to a recent study, average temperatures in France could rise by 3.8 degrees by the end of this century, a level in excess of the global average.

The remains of a fish on the parched bed of the Loire River at Ancenis, western France. © AFP/Sébastien Salom-Gomis

"This represents an increase of up to 50 percent compared to previous forecasts," said Aurélien Ribes, a climatologist at the French National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM), one of the study's authors.

In the worst-case scenario, if France continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, average temperatures could rise by 6.7 degrees, warns the study published on 4 October in the Earth Systems Dynamics journal.

In the best-case scenario, the increase would be 2.3°C.

Cumulative impact of emissions

Researchers from the CNRS, CNRM and the European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computing (Cerfacs) used data collected since 1899 by some 30 weather stations across France to calculate current and future warming.

These data showed that the current average temperature in France is 1.66 degrees higher than in the period 1900-1930.

📊Depuis le 16 octobre inclus, 3 jours consécutifs avec une anomalie de T°C moy. à l'échelle de la France ≥ 5.0 °C.
🔴Total de 19 j depuis le début de l'année.

1⃣ 1 janvier 2018 au 31 déc. 2018 : 23 j
2⃣ 1 jan. 2015 au 31 déc. 2015 : 20 j
3⃣ 1 jan. 2020 au 31 déc. 2020 : 20 j pic.twitter.com/OCxgOEWu9W

— Météo-France (@meteofrance) October 19, 2022

"Each tonne of CO2 counts because warming depends on the cumulative level of emissions," Ribes explained, adding that "by 2023, we will already have reached +1.8 degrees".

The latest report by the UN's climate experts (IPCC) showed that the planet had already warmed by an average of nearly 1.2 degree since the pre-industrial era due to the greenhouse gases generated by human activities.

Severe heat, drought, floods

The rise of 3.8 degrees by 2100 in France is only an average, warn the researchers: some regions, particularly around the Mediterranean or in the mountains, could experience even bigger increases.

Warming may also vary greatly depending on the season. While in winter, the rise in temperature would be 3.2°C (2.3 to 4.2°C depending on the region), the summer could see an average rise of 5.1 degrees (3.6 to 6.6°C).

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"This would mean that extreme phenomena like drought and floods, would be much more severe than those we experienced in the summer of 2022, when the average rise in temperature was 'only' 4 degrees," points out Julien Boé, a climatology researcher at the CNRS.

Ecosystems, biodiversity in danger

In any case, this warming will have "consequences on ecosystems and biodiversity, with habitats becoming less favourable to certain species, and also on the agricultural system" with the abandonment of certain crops due to a lack of water or a change in harvest cycles, explains Boé.

The only positive lesson is that "we are at the point where warming is increasing the fastest" due to the decrease in the use of aerosols, which have a cooling effect.

"The increase rate should therefore slow down after 2030," says Ribes.

Even so, if nothing changes, France will not escape the average additional 3.8 degrees.