How prepared is India to tackle a third wave of Covid-19?

With a devastating second Covid-19 wave ebbing amid an accelerated vaccination drive and easing restrictions, India is nonetheless preparing for a third wave.

Hundreds of people line up to receive their second dose of vaccine against the coronavirus at the municipal ground in Hyderabad, India, Thursday, July 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.) AP - Mahesh Kumar A

With a significant decline in Covid-19 cases, many of India’s states are opening up to markets, restaurants, gymnasiums, cinema halls and recreational activities. Business activity is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, as it had been just before the second wave hit in March.

Daily cases have been hovering around 40,000 for the past few weeks in India. However, some states in northeast and southern Kerala have been witnessing a surge in coronavirus infections, though last week’s data has suggested plateauing in the number of cases in those states too.

The lessons learnt from the second wave

However, experts are warning that the country still has a long way to go to effectively prevent the spread of the coronavirus and epidemiological models predict that a third wave, though less potent, might hit India in the next couple of months.

Although many states have started expanding their health infrastructure to ensure availability of essential equipment, drugs and ICU beds, in response to the devastation seen in April and May, the Delta Plus variant has now been detected even though it has not been classified as a variant of concern.

How India can prevent third wave of Covid-19 pandemic

The Delta Plus variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become a worry for an anticipated third wave, which can be prevented or mitigated at least on the basis of lessons learnt from the past two waves. be safe all are... pic.twitter.com/yMDDO8nupm

— govind chauha (@govindchauhan51) July 19, 2021

Delta Plus was first detected in Europe in March this year. It has been isolated in some samples in India and around 10 other countries. Delta Plus is a new version of the mutant variant Delta.

However, virologists and scientists believe that the key to thwarting a third wave is vaccinating the vulnerable, along with reliable data on genome sequencing of the virus variants in circulation.

“Slow vaccination is a problem. That will encourage the development of more variants, and also the third wave may hit us earlier than the rest of the developed world because there will still be a large number of susceptible individuals," Vineeta Bal, a scientist from the National Institute of Immunology told RFI.

The government aims to vaccinate all Indians by the end of this year, but the drive has been hobbled by slow pace, shortage of doses and vaccine hesitancy.

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Vaccination holds the key

As of Wednesday, over 500 million had got their first jab; 113 million people received both their shots while the total number of vaccinated is just over 8 % of the country’s 1.3 billion population.

Scientists feel that the government needs to vaccinate at least 9 to 10 million people every day and aggressively contain the virus.

India is only the third in the world to record officially more than 400,000 deaths - behind the US and Brazil. However, economists at the Center for Global Development have estimated between 3.4 million and 4.7 million excess deaths in India during the pandemic - though not all may have been directly due to Covid-19. 

“The second wave taught us valuable lessons, and I think we are better in terms of oxygen supply in district hospitals and community health centers. I don't think there is cause for panic," said Shally Awathi, a pediatric pulmonologist from King George's Medical University in Lucknow.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal announced the setup of a pediatric task force and two genome sequencing labs, as well as a plan to ramp up oxygen capacity in the state. The region has been one of the hardest hit by the second wave.

What are the lessons that governments and the general public can learn from India's battle with #COVID-19? Is India better equipped and prepared for a potential third wave? Watch CDDEP's Dr. Laxminarayan's interview on WES Perspectives to find out.

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— CDDEP (@CDDEP) July 29, 2021

Given that children will be more vulnerable to a potential third wave, the western state of Maharashtra plans to increase the number of pediatric Covid-19 beds to nearly 2,300, up from the current number of 600.

The financial capital, Mumbai, which won praise for its management of the second wave, is already procuring ventilators, monitors and other medical equipment.

It is an indisputable fact that the pandemic will end only when large numbers are vaccinated to break the chain of transmission, or else the virus will infect and mutate into more variants.