Diplomacy with Moscow has failed as cracks appear in Putin's plans

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin's recognition of Ukraine's separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, months of speculation over what Moscow's intentions towards Kyiv have been answered: The 2014 invasion of Ukrainian territory has entered a new phase. But therein Putin's problems lie.

Ukrainian servicemen walk to their position at the frontline with with Russia-backed separatists outside Verkhnotoretske village in Yasynuvata district of Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Dec. 27, 2021. AP - Andriy Andriyenko

The European Union is scrambling to impose sanctions on several Russian officials and financiers of Russia's armed forces in a bid to “target those who were involved in the illegal decision” to recognize two rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine.

The EU says it also intends to limit Moscow’s access to EU capital and financial markets where oligarchs have had free reign in the run-up to the latest crisis over Ukraine's sovereignty. 

Yet it could be argued that the proposed sanctions are too little, too late. 

Historically, sanctions against a potential aggressor are imposed as a deterrent, not a punishment. And to date, any sanctions imposed on Moscow after the annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014 have had little effect on the machinations of the Kremlin or President Putin's allies. 

Speaking to RFI this Tuesday, professor Volodymyr Yermolenko from the University of Kiev explained that what worries people most in Ukraine is the parametres Putin is willing to push. 

"We see that Russia is making a direct invasion into Ukrainian territory, but the big question is what borders of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk republics has Russia recognised?

"Does Russia think that these so-called republics are now within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions?

Yermolenko was eager to underline that "one third of these regions is already occupied by Russians and pro-Russian forces. This means we are heading for a major escalation".

Russian pretexts for full occupation 

Russia's move to send "peacekeepers" to the secessionist regions of eastern Ukraine came only hours after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who believes Putin may be looking for a pretext to occupy the whole of Ukraine.

Claims and counterclaims of a spike in hostilities between Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces over the weekend feed precisely into the Cold War-era strategies of provocation - so-called "False Flag" pretexts. 

"The Russian president is waiting for just that to have a pretext possibly to occupy all of Ukraine,” he added. 

And in a move that accentuates the potential severity of the sanctions to come, Scholz declared that Germany has frozen the ratification process of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin would halt the regulatory approval process for Nord Stream 2, a controversial gas pipeline project connecting Russia and Germany.

Here's how it relates to the Ukraine crisis. https://t.co/7PWiaBq2k0

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 22, 2022

• Paris Perspective #24: On thin ice - Europe, Ukraine and a new Cold War - Marie Dumoulin
• Paris Perspective #12: Putin, Paris and power - Oleg Kobtzeff

NATO over a barrel?

Speaking recently to RFI, former US diplomat William Jordan was quick to recognise that Russia's brinksmanship underscores that for the last 15 to 20 years, NATO is no longer the greatest alliance that ever existed and that agents provocateurs who grew up in the Soviet-era have long sought ways to sow division among NATO allies.

From the outset, the heart of the current conflict lies within an abstract: Ukraine's right to choose whether to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) - a process that would take years if agreed to by President Volodymyr Zelenzkyy tomorrow - or acquiesce to Putin's aggression and stay within Moscow's "traditional sphere of influence".  

And that has had NATO over a barrel to date. 

Russia has been playing on one of NATO's weaknesses - its relationship with Ukraine, says Maria Dumoulin from the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"It is threatening Ukraine because it's not a NATO member.

"Putin is banking that NATO will not intervene directly to support Ukraine, because Article Five is not a guarantee for a non-member states," she told RFI recently.

Isolated Putin

However, for witnesses on the ground, such as Kyiv-based film director Johnny O'Reilly, Putin's televised speech was perhaps the Russian leader's greatest act of self-destruction.

"Winning the hearts and minds has never been a priority for the Moscow strong-man, but when it comes to pro-Russian separatists an appeal to emotion has often been his modus operandi," O'Reilly tells RFI.

"But no one appears to have rallied to Putin's side, setting a new trajectory for the man in the Kremlin", he says, adding that the Russian president is surrounded by "yes men".

"Putin went 100% Blofeld and has shown how he reacts when he's cornered", the filmmaker concludes. "He has made a strategic mistake and it would appear that the 'Biden Playbook' may have worked." 

Indeed, despite the poker-faced Putin finally showing his hand after months of conjecture and supposition over what game he would play, NATO, Europe and the US may be in line to call his bluff. 

#NATO Allies and international leaders respond to the recognition by #Russia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk ''People’s Republics'' in #Ukraine 🇺🇦

📄Twitter Moment ⤵️https://t.co/nIo8WoRurk

— NATO (@NATO) February 22, 2022

Russia's neighbours Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - though concerned - haven't remarked an escalation in Russian military activity in the Baltic Sea, where many countries are suspicious of Moscow’s intentions.

Staunch Russian ally Serbia - and most Balkan leaders - have condemned Russia’s decision.

Even Putin's Turkish counterpart and like-minded autocrat Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Russia’s decision to recognize the separatists in eastern Ukraine is “unacceptable” and has called for a respect of international laws.

So far, the only states to vocally support Russia's recognition of Ukraine's rebel regions are Syria and Damascus' ally Iran.

China, for its part, has called for restraint from all sides in the escalation of Russia's latest spurt of expansionism.

What remains to be seen - after Ukraine's eight-year conflict that has result in the death of14,000 people - is whether Putin's latest gamble to undermine Western democracies, divide trans-Atlantic alliances and reinforce autocracies will garner popular support, as people get a glimpse of who's really behind the curtain of the Kremlin's propaganda machine.