IPCC scientists still hopeful of capping global warming at 1.5°C

Despite the scale and urgency of the climate crisis, it's not too late to secure a “liveable and sustainable future for all” if immediate action is taken to slash greenhouse gas emissions and ensure climate justice for vulnerable people, a major UN climate report published Monday says.

A polar bear is seen on ice floes in the British Channel in the Franz Josef Land archipelago on August 16, 2021. Earth is hotter than it has been in 125,000 years, with deadly heatwaves, storms and floods amplified by global warming. AFP - EKATERINA ANISIMOVA

More than 200 countries and hundreds of the world’s leading scientists signed off on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 synthesis report – a comprehensive breakdown of global climate knowledge – after a week of deliberations in the Swiss town of Interlaken.

Over the past year many scientists have warned the world will inevitably miss the key Paris Agreement target of capping warming at 1.5 degrees because existing government policies by wealthy and polluting nations are not ambitious enough.

Sounding alarm

Climate reports have consistently found the world is on the cusp of irreversible levels of warming.

In October 2022, the UN Environment Programme warned there was no “no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place” as it called for a radical transformation of the international energy sector.

Back in 2018, the IPCC itself underscored the unprecedented scale of the challenge required to keep warming to 1.5°C – a challenge that has only increased in scope five years later as emissions continue to rise.

Now scientists are pointing to “multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change”, which they say are already available to governments and need to be implemented urgently.

Loss and damage

Focusing on the key area of loss and damage reparations for poorer countries on the frontlines of climate change – a sticking point at the Cop27 climate talks last November – the report says the right action taken now could result in fair and sustainable transformational change.

“Climate justice is crucial because those who have contributed least to climate change are being disproportionately affected,” said Aditi Mukherji, one of the report’s 93 authors.

“Almost half of the world’s population lives in regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change. In the last decade, deaths from floods, droughts and storms were 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions.”

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The pace and scale of climate action needs to be massively ramped up this decade to stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown, the report says – adding that capping warming at 1.5°C will require deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions across all sectors.

To achieve this goal, emissions need to start dropping immediately and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030. More than a century of burning fossil fuels coupled with unsustainable energy and land use has already caused global warming of 1.1°C.

Climate-resilient development

The report calls for climate-resilient development, based on local knowledge, that results in wider social benefits including improved health and equality as well as a stronger economy.

The decisions made over the next few years will play a critical role in deciding our future and that of generations to come, the report warns – adding that climate-resilient development becomes ever more challenging with every increment of global warming.

Ramping up climate investments is seen as critical to achieving global climate targets, with governments urged to send a message to investors by increasing the flow of public climate finance.

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“Accelerated climate action will only come about if there is a many fold increase in finance. Insufficient and misaligned finance is holding back progress,” said Christopher Trisos, another of the report’s authors.

The world has enough capital to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions if existing barriers are removed, the report found.

Investors, central banks and financial regulators all have a role to play.

Monday’s synthesis report is the closing chapter of the IPCC’s sixth assessment summarising the latest information about climate change, its impacts and potential solutions.

With each report taking five to seven years to complete, it is expected to be the UN body’s last comprehensive review this decade.