Will aid to Ukraine shrink after elections in Eastern Europe?

In Slovakia, a populist party that wants to stop military aid to Ukraine and is critical of the EU and Nato will be tasked with forming a new government after winning weekend elections. Meanwhile, Poland is about to go to the polls, with the opposition rallying hard to try and oust the anti-EU government.

SMER-SSD party leader Robert Fico reacts during a press conference after the country's early parliamentary elections, in Bratislava, Slovakia, October 1, 2023. REUTERS - RADOVAN STOKLASA

In Slovakia, the Smer-SD party led by former prime minister Robert Fico won 23 percent in Saturday's vote, beating the centrist Progressive Slovakia at 18 percent, but did not gain an absolute majority.

During his campaign, the 59-year-old Fico vowed that Slovakia would not send "a single round of ammunition" to Ukraine and called for better ties with Russia – raising concerns in many EU member states that staunchly support Kyiv’s war efforts.

But Andrej Školkay, Research Director with the School of Communication and Media (Skamba) in Bratislava, contacted by RFI, points out that as Fico’s party doesn’t have the absolute majority, he will be forced to find a coalition government, possibly with Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas (Voice) Social Democracy Party, which will have "a moderating influence".

Playing on fears

He also says Fico's campaign promise to stop delivering military hardware to Ukraine was basically playing on "fears and emotions".

"We have no weapons or armour left in this country. Only [material] from the old Soviet era," he says, indicating that Slovakian arms supply to Ukraine would have come to an end regardless which party would take the helm.

I don't think it will be so serious. Moreover, we have no weapons or armor left in this country.

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REMARKS by Andrej Školkay, Director School of Communication and Media Bratislava

Jan van der Made

Last July, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová in Bratislava and members of the now outgoing government. Support for Ukraine may now be in doubt.

However, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday his country respected the "choice of the Slovak people".

Speaking at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv, he also insisted it was "too early to say how the election result will affect Slovakia’s position," he said, adding that "first conclusions" could only be drawn after a coalition has been formed in Slovakia.

Slovak President Zuzana Caputova (R) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky review a military honor guard in front of the Presidential Palace in Bratislava, Slovak Republic, on July 7, 2023. AFP - TOMAS BENEDIKOVIC

Fico, a leftist former lawyer, said Sunday that Slovakia's foreign policy focus would not change as "we are naturally EU members".

"That of course doesn't mean I can't criticise things in the EU that I don't like".

Hungary's leader Viktor Orban, whom analysts see as a potential ally of Fico within the EU ecosystem, congratulated Fico on social media, "on his indisputable victory at the Slovak parliamentary elections".

The eastern EU member state is seen as somewhat of a troublemaker, frequently criticised by Brussels for rule-of-law issues and hampering EU and NATO efforts to help Ukraine.

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But others, like Marcin Święcicki, president of the European Movement Poland and a former Polish Minister for Foreign Economic Relations, have expressed concerns.

Many decisions by the EU must be taken unanimously. Thus we are afraid that small countries can block the entire EU support for Ukraine.

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REMARKS by Marcin Święcicki, President European Movement Poland in Warsaw

Jan van der Made

"Fico is known for his pro-Russian stance in the conflict with Ukraine. And we are afraid that the support of Slovakia to Ukraine can be much weaker," he told RFI.

He points out that many EU decisions - from sanctions against Russia and on financing of arms for Ukraine - must be taken unanimously for them to function.

"We are afraid that a small country can block the entire European Union in supporting Ukraine," he says, pointing out that the €18 billion budget for financial support to Ukraine "was delayed due to resistance from Hungary."

Possible EU or Nato membership for Ukraine could be slowed down in a similar fashion, he thinks.

"Million hearts march"

Meanwhile, Poland is up for elections on 15 October, with the nationalist ruling PiS party keen to hang on to power.

Around a million people gathered on Sunday at a rally in Warsaw to protest against the conservative government.

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Organised by the leader of the opposition Civic Platform (PO) Donald Tusk, the "Million Hearts March" sought to mobilise the electorate ahead of the vote.

Tusk, a former European Council president, has said PiS could aim to take Poland out of the EU, something the party denies, and has framed the election as crucial for minority and women's rights.

PiS denies accusations from Brussels that it has subverted democratic norms and says its reforms of the judiciary are aimed at making the country fairer.

A giant Second World War Polish Home Army flag is seen, as participants attend the "March of a Million Hearts" rally, organised by the Civic Coalition opposition parties, two weeks ahead of the parliamentary election, in Warsaw, Poland October 1, 2023. Agencja Wyborcza.pl via REUTERS - Maciek Jazwiecki/Agencja Wyborcz

"Democratic opposition is very strong, people are not alone," says Święcicki of the demonstration. "It will help mobilise the electorate, since the turnout in Poland is [usually] relatively low".

He says the present government "wants to take votes of the extreme right that is opposing support for Ukraine, more or less similar tones as in Slovakia and Hungary."

"In order win these votes, the ruling party announced that new weapons will not be delivered to Ukraine."

(With agencies)