Turkey steps up threats against Syrian Kurdish forces after car bombing

Turkey is threatening to launch a military operation against Syrian Kurdish forces after a deadly attack in Syrian territory where Turkish forces are present.

Bombings are frequent in areas of northern Syria that the Turkish army and its proxies seized from Kurdish forces. White Helmets, Syrian Civil Defence/AFP/File

Last month's deadly car bombing in the Turkish-controlled Syrian Afrin region saw Ankara blaming the Syrian Kurdish group YPG.

Turkish forces, along with Syrian rebels, ousted the YPG from the area three years ago. The Kurdish group has been waging a guerrilla campaign against the Turkish troops and their Syrian rebel allies. 

But in an address to the country, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had reached his limit.

"The latest attacks against our police and the aggressions against our country were the last drop. We will take the necessary measures to solve this issue as soon as possible," Erdogan said.

Turkey accuses the YPG of having links to Kurdish separatists the PKK fighting in Turkish territory since the 1980s. But the YPG denies any links to the PKK. 

Erdogan says Turkish forces and Syrian rebels backed by Turkey will seek to oust the YPG from the strategic town of Tell Rifaat.

Ankara believes that is the launchpad of the Kurdish group's attacks against Turkish forces in Syria. 

Russian presence

But Russian forces control Tell Rifaat, along with the airspace.

"If Tell Riffaat will be the focus of the operation, Russian cooperation, or let's say Russian facilitation, would be of utmost importance because Russia has air dominance in the area," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of George Marshall Fund office in Ankara.

"Because the area of Tell Rifaat is not close to the Turkish border, and any operation would be very difficult without Russian approval." 

Ankara has long sought Tell Rifaat, as it would link the three areas of Syria under Turkish military control.

But the Syrian town is a vital transportation hub and close to Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo. 

Moscow is predicted to be wary of giving Ankara such a valuable prize. 

"I think Russia is at least resisting it [Turkish military operation], but everything is possible," said Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House in London.

"Russia will drive a hard bargain, and at the end of this hard bargain, this process will involve many give-and-takes," Dalay added.

"If Russia thinks it will get something significant in return, then yes, it's a possibility; in the end, let's not forget, two out of three Turkish operations into Syria were facilitated by Russia." 

Elections

The United States backs the YPG in its war against the Islamic State group. Thus, any Turkish operation against the Kurdish group could further strain already complicated relations between Turkey and the US. 

But Turkey is to hold presidential elections by 2023, and that could factor into Erdogan's calculations.

"Erdogan is in an election year, and the central bank reserves are empty," said Aydin Selcen, a columnist for the Duvar News portal.

"Either the diplomatic and the real cost of any move or any new military operation in Syria will be considered as exorbitant," added Selcen.

"Or maybe such a story will be needed in this election year as a propaganda tool." 

Erdogan rarely makes empty threats, given Turkish forces have already carried out three primary Syrian military operations. Still, this latest proposed operation could prove to be the Turkish president's biggest gamble.