Doubts over IS strategy overshadow Mosul offensive

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced early Monday a vast military operation to retake the city of Mosul from the Islamic State (IS) armed group. Abadi promised the Iraqi flag would soon fly in the city, but many groups are looking to maintain influence, and it was unclear what kind of fight the jihadists were prepared to put into holding the city.

Iraqi soldiers gather to battle against the Islamic State armed group south of Mosul, 15 June 2016. Reuters/Stringer

Abadi announced the offensive in a televised address to the million-plus civilians thought to be still living in Mosul.

“The forces that lead the liberation operation are the brave Iraqi army with the police forces, and they, and no one else, will be entering Mosul,” Abadi said. “They want nothing but the best for you and to protect you.”

But the nearly 30,000 troops surrounding the city also include Shia paramilitary and militia groups, Kurdish peshmerga and various Sunni tribal groups, all with their own interests, and they will be supported by US-led coalition airstrikes as well as the presence of Turkey and Iran.

“The problem with this is of course [all players] may have the same immediate end, which is to combat the Islamic State, but they have completely different plans for what’s going to come next,” says Renad Mansour, a fellow at Chatham House in London.

Such various interests could affect how the offensive itself plays out.

“As they’re fighting, they trying to anticipate or pre-empt the political vacuum that’s going to emerge, where they’re going and the land that they’re deciding to take,” Mansour says. “It will affect strategies and tactics moving forward.”

Islamic State group strategy remains to be seen

US military intelligence estimates the IS has between 3000 and 4500 fighters in Mosul, meaning they are vastly outnumbered, although they have also controlled the city for more than two years.

The loss of Mosul would be a major blow to the IS, which has to weigh defending a city with high symbolic value with the more practical consideration that the odds are against it.

“Not only is it the largest city they have, much larger than Raqqa in Syria, but it’s also where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared himself a caliph,” Baram says. “For them it’s very important to show they can run a caliphate, and they have been running Mosul quite effectively actually. If they can’t show that anymore, this is a major blow.”

The IS previously fought the Iraqi forces in the battles for Fallujah and Ramadi, but have also withdrawn from other cities, which the Iraqi military appears to be taking into consideration.

“So far, the Iraqi military has left open a corridor for them to run away west towards the Syrian border, towards Raqqa and so on,” says Amatzia Baram, director of the Centre for Iraq Studies at the University of Haifa and a former advisor to Israeli and US governments.

“So the question is: will they have a last stand in Mosul? The hope of course is that they tell everybody to leave. I don’t think they’ve made up their minds yet, but soon they will have to.”